Scientific Program Overview: Troposphere High latitude INhibitors to multi-scale sea ICE Predictability (THINICE)
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Project details
This is an award to support continued planning for THINICE. It is not a commitment by NSF to fund the field project and related analysis and numerical simulation work. Those funding decisions will be determined by means of further review. In recent decades, the Arctic has transitioned to more mobile and thinner sea ice and more expansive stretches of open ocean. One outcome of these profound changes is the increasingly important role of Arctic Cyclones (ACs) in the loss of sea ice, which can occur at an astonishing rate of 1/2 million km2 within a 3-day period, an area that is bigger than California and approximately the size of Spain. An accurate prediction of such sea ice losses and the interplay between Arctic cyclones, sea ice and the open ocean is becoming increasing important for public safety, commerce, and national security. Unfortunately, the accurate prediction of ACs and sea ice loss is often a challenge, even on weather time-scales. This award supports continued planning for the THINICE to address this challenge. The sampling plan will include a 6-week international, multi-agency field campaign for July and August 2021 with a complementary numerical modeling and analysis component. This SPO is to organize the first systematic observational investigation to enhance our understanding of the critical mechanisms that determine the location, strength, evolution, and characteristics of TPVs, ACs and their potential for influencing sea ice break-up and decline. THINICE will directly contribute to NSF's goal of 'Navigating the New Arctic', which is one of the agencies ten bold ideas for future investment at the frontiers of science and engineering. THINICE will also contribute to NSF INCLUDES (Inclusion across the Nation of Communities of Learners of Underrepresented Discoverers in Engineering and Science) through educational and outreach activities that utilize NSF's Research Experience for Undergraduates program to involving indigenous students, including through novel social media efforts. Fundamental differences exist between the dynamics of cyclones in middle latitude and the Arctic as, for example, the higher planetary rotation rate in the Arctic means that vortices will play more significant role in the cyclogenesis process. In particular, Tropopause Polar Vortices (TPVs) serve as an important precursor to the formation of ACs with cyclogenesis taking place when these vortices interact with low-level baroclinic zones. Another difference between weather systems in the Arctic and middle latitudes is the increased importance at higher latitudes of radiative processes relative to latent heating. Thus, the treatment of cloud and radiative processes is likely critical to accurately defining the structure and intensity of TPVs and ACs. While major field campaigns have been launched to study cyclones in middle latitudes, detailed observational studies of TPVs and ACs have not yet been undertaken. The THINICE SPO will coordinate efforts with plans to utilize in-situ and remote sensing measurements taken from the NSF-NCAR GV research aircraft to advance our knowledge of: (1) The dynamical and physical processes that control the intensity, structure, and evolution of ACs and TPVs; (2) The dynamical interactions between TPVs and ACs, including the role of TPVs in cyclogenesis and how ACs are modified when multiple TPVs are interactive; and (3) The coupling of TPVs and ACs with the underlying sea surface and sea ice during the summer, and how such coupling can lead to rapid sea ice loss and feedbacks that might, in turn, modify TPVs and ACs.
Title | Project start | End date | Organisation | Department | Project study region |
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NNA Track 2: PredictFest: To Build Capacity for Arctic Stakeholders in Need of Multi-Scale Predictions | 01.01.2020 | 31.12.2022 | University of Alaska | University of Alaska Fairbanks, Department | |
AMAP | 01.03.2020 | 15.12.2020 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
NNA: Bridging the Atomistic Deformation Mechanisms to the Microscopic Adhesive-to-Cohesive Fracture at Ice-Metal Interfaces | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | Idaho State University | Idaho State University, dept. | |
GeoBasis-Zackenberg 2020 | 01.04.2020 | 31.03.2021 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Denmark |
Deciphering the role of sea-ice microorganisms on cloud processes in the Arctic | 01.06.2019 | 30.05.2021 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Denmark |
Integrating novel molecular techniques to disentangle the roles of climate, time, and human agency on the evolution of the Icelandic landscape | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Iceland |
Collaborative Research: Improving research coordination for Summit Station and the Dry-Snow Zone of Greenland | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | Dartmouth College | Dartmouth College, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Assessing Transport Pathways into the Arctic and Their Efficiencies | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | Columbia University | Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory | |
Collaborative Research: Improving research coordination for Summit Station and the Dry-Snow Zone of Greenland | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | University of New Hampshire | University of New Hampshire, Department | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collaborative Research: Improving research coordination for Summit Station and the Dry-Snow Zone of Greenland | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Timing and Paleoceanographic Impacts of the Onset of Arctic-Baffin Bay Throughflow | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Analysis to evaluate and improve model performance in the Central Arctic: Unique perspectives from autonomous platforms during MOSAiC | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2022 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Arctic (entire region) |
2019 Undergraduate Greenland Workshop | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2019 | University of Michigan | University of Michigan, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
GeoBasis | 01.04.2019 | 31.03.2020 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
ICOS atmospheric | 29.11.2017 | 08.12.2022 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Department of Environmental Science, Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Polarsonde: A Meteorological Sensor To Detect Aircraft Icing Hazard | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2013 | University of Adelaide | The University of Adelaide, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Soil-Snow-Atmosphere Exchange of Mercury in the Interior Arctic Tundra | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2017 | University of Massachusetts | University of Massachusetts, Lowell, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Science coordination office for Summit Station/ISI Observatory and the Greenland Traverse | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2018 | University of California | University of California, Merced, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2017 | City University of New York | City University of New York (CUNY), dept. | |
Identifying the Origins of Summertime Arctic Cloud Condensation Nuclei Using Online Fine Aerosol Composition Measurements | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Arctic (entire region) |
Collaborative Research: Arctic sea ice variability: Remote drivers and local processes | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | University of California | University of California, Santa Barbara, dept. | |
NNA: NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: The Integrated Characterization of Clouds, Energy, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit, Aerosol-Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collaborative Research: The Combined Influence of sea ice and snow cover on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Climate Variability | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc (AER) | Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc, dept. | |
Collaborative Research-HIARC: Anthropogenic Heat Islands in the Arctic. Windows to the Future of the Regional Climates, Ecosystems and Societies | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2019 | George Washington University | George Washington University, dept. | |
Reconstruction of climate at the Norse Settlements of Greenland over the last two millennia using organic biomarkers in lake sediments | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2019 | University of Massachusetts | University of Massachusetts, Amherst, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | State University of New York | State University of New York at Stony Brook, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | University of Rochester | University of Rochester, Dept | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | |
The role of uncertainty in waveguide perturbations on midlatitude predictability with DOWNSTREAM | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | State University of New York | State University of New York at Albany, dept. | |
Sensitivity of the mid-latitude waveguide to the dynamics and observations of Arctic tropopause-based vortices | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | University of Oklahoma | University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, dept. | |
Impacts of distant pollution sources on microphysical transitions in Arctic clouds | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Utah | University of Utah, dept. | |
High Resolution, Active Remote Sensing of Cloud Microphysics at Summit, Greenland with Polarized Raman Lidar | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2018 | University of Leeds | University of Leeds, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2017 | University of Tennessee | University of Tennessee, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2014 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | City University of New York | City University of New York (CUNY), dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Maryland | University of Maryland College Park, dept. | |
RUI: Quantifying and Predicting the Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the State of the Arctic | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | United States Naval Academy | United States Naval Academy, dept. | |
North East Greenland Automated Weather Station and GPS | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2017 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Greenland Ice Sheet |
A Glacier Dynamics and Ice-Ocean Interactions Perspective for IceBridge Science | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2016 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Greenland AWS technology | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2018 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Greenland, North-West |
Collection and Analysis of GEOSummit Aerosols | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2021 | University of California | University of California, Davis, dept. | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Investigation of the mechanisms that drive intraseasonal Arctic surface air temperature variability during the winter | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | Penn State University | Penn State University, Department | |
Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic - Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Department | |
Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic - Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | National Center for Atmospheric Research | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Simulated Arctic Freshwater System in CMIP5 Models, the CESM Large Ensemble, and Forced Simulations | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | McGill University | McGill University, Dept | |
Collaborative Research: The Combined Influence of sea ice and snow cover on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Climate Variability | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department | |
Collaborative Research: An examination of human social and cultural adaptation through archaeological and paleoclimate data from the Aleutian Islands | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2019 | Western Washington University | Western Washington University, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | Rutgers University New Brunswick | Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Dept | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2018 | Penn State University | Penn State University, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Dept | |
Facilitating Arctic System Science using the Community Earth System Model | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2017 | National Center for Atmospheric Research | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department | |
Collaborative Proposal: The Role of Arctic Amplification in Modifying Mid-latitude Atmospheric Circulation and Promoting Extreme Weather Events | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | Rutgers University New Brunswick | Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Refining Long-term Climate Records from the Renland Ice Cap | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2017 | Penn State University | Penn State University, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
The Seasonal Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Mechanisms and Robustness across Models | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | National Center for Atmospheric Research | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department | |
The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Holocene climate change: Testing ice sheet models and forcing mechanisms of ice margin change | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | University at Buffalo | University at Buffalo, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
NNA: NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: The Integrated Characterization of Clouds, Energy, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit, Aerosol-Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2020 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | Greenland, Mid-West |
NNA: NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: The Integrated Characterization of Clouds, Energy, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit, Aerosol-Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2020 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
NNA: Remote Sensing of Arctic Sea Ice Using the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | Dartmouth College | Dartmouth College, Department | |
NNA: AON: EAGER: Closing the Water Vapor Exchange Budget Between the Ice Sheets and Free Atmosphere | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2020 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Atmospheric Hydrocarbons at GEOSummit, Greenland, as Tracers for Climate Change, Air Pollution Transport, and Oxidation Chemistry in the Arctic | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2019 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | Columbia University | Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | Desert Research Institute | Desert Research Institute, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Simulated Arctic Freshwater System in CMIP5 Models, the CESM Large Ensemble, and Forced Simulations | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Collaborative Research-HIARC: Anthropogenic Heat Islands in the Arctic. Windows to the Future of the Regional Climates, Ecosystems and Societies | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2019 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
The Impact of the Stratosphere on Arctic Climate | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2019 | Columbia University | Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory | |
Collaborative Research: Science coordination office for Summit Station/ISI Observatory and the Greenland Traverse | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2018 | Dartmouth College | Dartmouth College, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Science coordination office for Summit Station/ISI Observatory and the Greenland Traverse | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2018 | University of New Hampshire | University of New Hampshire, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Refining Long-term Climate Records from the Renland Ice Cap | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2017 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-East |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Proposal: The Role of Arctic Amplification in Modifying Mid-latitude Atmospheric Circulation and Promoting Extreme Weather Events | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Continuous Records of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosol Deposition During the Holocene: Testing the Fidelity of New Methods for Reconstructing Atmospheric Change | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | Oregon State University | Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Continuous Records of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosol Deposition During the Holocene: Testing the Fidelity of New Methods for Reconstructing Atmospheric Change | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | Desert Research Institute | Desert Research Institute, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences | Greenland, Mid-West |
Unraveling the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet from its internal radiostratigraphy | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | University of Washington | School of Oceanography | |
Collaborative Research: Arctic sea ice variability: Remote drivers and local processes | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | University of Washington | School of Oceanography | |
DMI service of weather stations east Greenland 2018 | 01.08.2018 | 31.08.2018 | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) | Arctic (entire region) | |
Snow data collection on Greenland scale | 25.02.2014 | 20.03.2014 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC) | Greenland, North-West |
UV-index service | 01.03.2012 | 28.02.2022 | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) | Research and Development | Arctic (entire region) |
GeoBasis-Zackenberg 2018 | 16.04.2018 | 01.11.2018 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Drivhusgas-observationer i Arktis (ObsArktis) | 31.07.2018 | 29.08.2018 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) | 01.07.2018 | 31.07.2018 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Evaluation of existing measurements in 2015 and 2016; new measurements of Short lived greenhouse forcers in 2017 and 2018 (EVAM-SLCF) and 2017-2019 | 01.08.2017 | 31.07.2019 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
METAPOL (Meteorological and pollutant observations in the High Arctic) | 10.08.2017 | 20.08.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
ObsArktis | 03.07.2017 | 21.08.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC) | Greenland, North-East |
Arctic monitoring Assessment program | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
MaxDOAS | 15.04.2017 | 29.04.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
Snow data collection on Greenland scale | 25.02.2014 | 20.03.2014 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC) | Greenland, North-West |
Microbial atmospheric-terrestrial coupling driven by long distance transport and deposition | 11.04.2015 | 03.05.2015 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Long-range transport of particle pollution to the Arctic and physical properties of Arctic aerosols | 29.04.2015 | 22.05.2015 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
The dynamics of mercury in the Arctic atmosphere | 25.02.2016 | 15.05.2016 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
The cloud forming potential of atmospheric particles | 01.04.2016 | 30.04.2016 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |