Collaborative Research: Arctic sea ice variability: Remote drivers and local processes
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Project details
Arctic sea ice loss is an important concern for global society affecting both Arctic and global environments. At present, global climate models do a poor job of predicting recent observed declines in Arctic sea ice, and the causes of this discrepancy remain unclear. One interpretation is that models may not be sensitive enough to capture the response of sea ice to greenhouse warming. However, another possibility is that natural cycles have accelerated the recent Arctic sea ice loss. Solving this problem has important implications not only for the interpretation of recent Arctic climate change but also the future projection for the Arctic, including the question as to when we will see the first ice free summer in the Arctic. The study will conduct targeted simulations and place these simulations in the context of observations over the last 117 years. As a result, we expect to better understand how well models capture naturally occurring variations of the Arctic climate and sea ice, and how we can improve models to yield more confident predictions. In addition, the study will train a graduate student and a postdoctoral scientist in polar aspects of climate science and general climate modeling and will provide outreach activities targeting K-12 students and teachers in Santa Barbara. This project will help us understand and quantify how atmospheric circulation in the Arctic influences winds, cloudiness, water vapor, radiation and thereby sea ice variability. It will lead to better understanding of the relative contribution of forced and internal variabilities in recent Arctic warming and sea ice loss. First, the investigators will use data assimilation techniques in a global earth system model and explore how tropical sea surface temperature contributes to the recent sea ice decline via teleconnections to the high latitudes. The investigators will then examine dynamical mechanisms that link Arctic circulation to remote drivers in the tropics and put circulation changes over the last 40 years into the context of longer centennial term changes. Finally, results will help evaluate model skill for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and determine whether the tropical drivers represent a main source of modeled internal variability.
Title | Project start | End date | Organisation | Department | Project study region |
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NNA Track 2: PredictFest: To Build Capacity for Arctic Stakeholders in Need of Multi-Scale Predictions | 01.01.2020 | 31.12.2022 | University of Alaska | University of Alaska Fairbanks, Department | |
AMAP | 01.03.2020 | 15.12.2020 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
NNA: Bridging the Atomistic Deformation Mechanisms to the Microscopic Adhesive-to-Cohesive Fracture at Ice-Metal Interfaces | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | Idaho State University | Idaho State University, dept. | |
GeoBasis-Zackenberg 2020 | 01.04.2020 | 31.03.2021 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Denmark |
Deciphering the role of sea-ice microorganisms on cloud processes in the Arctic | 01.06.2019 | 30.05.2021 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Denmark |
Integrating novel molecular techniques to disentangle the roles of climate, time, and human agency on the evolution of the Icelandic landscape | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Iceland |
Scientific Program Overview: Troposphere High latitude INhibitors to multi-scale sea ICE Predictability (THINICE) | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2021 | University of Oklahoma | University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Improving research coordination for Summit Station and the Dry-Snow Zone of Greenland | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | Dartmouth College | Dartmouth College, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Assessing Transport Pathways into the Arctic and Their Efficiencies | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | Columbia University | Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory | |
Collaborative Research: Improving research coordination for Summit Station and the Dry-Snow Zone of Greenland | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | University of New Hampshire | University of New Hampshire, Department | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collaborative Research: Improving research coordination for Summit Station and the Dry-Snow Zone of Greenland | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Timing and Paleoceanographic Impacts of the Onset of Arctic-Baffin Bay Throughflow | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Analysis to evaluate and improve model performance in the Central Arctic: Unique perspectives from autonomous platforms during MOSAiC | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2022 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Arctic (entire region) |
2019 Undergraduate Greenland Workshop | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2019 | University of Michigan | University of Michigan, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
GeoBasis | 01.04.2019 | 31.03.2020 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
ICOS atmospheric | 29.11.2017 | 08.12.2022 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Department of Environmental Science, Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Polarsonde: A Meteorological Sensor To Detect Aircraft Icing Hazard | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2013 | University of Adelaide | The University of Adelaide, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Soil-Snow-Atmosphere Exchange of Mercury in the Interior Arctic Tundra | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2017 | University of Massachusetts | University of Massachusetts, Lowell, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Science coordination office for Summit Station/ISI Observatory and the Greenland Traverse | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2018 | University of California | University of California, Merced, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2017 | City University of New York | City University of New York (CUNY), dept. | |
Identifying the Origins of Summertime Arctic Cloud Condensation Nuclei Using Online Fine Aerosol Composition Measurements | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Arctic (entire region) |
NNA: NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: The Integrated Characterization of Clouds, Energy, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit, Aerosol-Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collaborative Research-HIARC: Anthropogenic Heat Islands in the Arctic. Windows to the Future of the Regional Climates, Ecosystems and Societies | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2019 | George Washington University | George Washington University, dept. | |
Reconstruction of climate at the Norse Settlements of Greenland over the last two millennia using organic biomarkers in lake sediments | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2019 | University of Massachusetts | University of Massachusetts, Amherst, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: The Combined Influence of sea ice and snow cover on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Climate Variability | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc (AER) | Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | State University of New York | State University of New York at Stony Brook, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | University of Rochester | University of Rochester, Dept | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | |
The role of uncertainty in waveguide perturbations on midlatitude predictability with DOWNSTREAM | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | State University of New York | State University of New York at Albany, dept. | |
Sensitivity of the mid-latitude waveguide to the dynamics and observations of Arctic tropopause-based vortices | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | University of Oklahoma | University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, dept. | |
Impacts of distant pollution sources on microphysical transitions in Arctic clouds | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Utah | University of Utah, dept. | |
High Resolution, Active Remote Sensing of Cloud Microphysics at Summit, Greenland with Polarized Raman Lidar | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2018 | University of Leeds | University of Leeds, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2017 | University of Tennessee | University of Tennessee, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2014 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | City University of New York | City University of New York (CUNY), dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Maryland | University of Maryland College Park, dept. | |
RUI: Quantifying and Predicting the Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the State of the Arctic | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | United States Naval Academy | United States Naval Academy, dept. | |
A Glacier Dynamics and Ice-Ocean Interactions Perspective for IceBridge Science | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2016 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Greenland AWS technology | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2018 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Greenland, North-West |
North East Greenland Automated Weather Station and GPS | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2017 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collection and Analysis of GEOSummit Aerosols | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2021 | University of California | University of California, Davis, dept. | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Investigation of the mechanisms that drive intraseasonal Arctic surface air temperature variability during the winter | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | Penn State University | Penn State University, Department | |
Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic - Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Department | |
Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic - Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | National Center for Atmospheric Research | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Simulated Arctic Freshwater System in CMIP5 Models, the CESM Large Ensemble, and Forced Simulations | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | McGill University | McGill University, Dept | |
Collaborative Research: The Combined Influence of sea ice and snow cover on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Climate Variability | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department | |
Collaborative Research: An examination of human social and cultural adaptation through archaeological and paleoclimate data from the Aleutian Islands | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2019 | Western Washington University | Western Washington University, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | Rutgers University New Brunswick | Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Dept | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2018 | Penn State University | Penn State University, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Dept | |
Facilitating Arctic System Science using the Community Earth System Model | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2017 | National Center for Atmospheric Research | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department | |
Collaborative Proposal: The Role of Arctic Amplification in Modifying Mid-latitude Atmospheric Circulation and Promoting Extreme Weather Events | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | Rutgers University New Brunswick | Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Refining Long-term Climate Records from the Renland Ice Cap | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2017 | Penn State University | Penn State University, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Holocene climate change: Testing ice sheet models and forcing mechanisms of ice margin change | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | University at Buffalo | University at Buffalo, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
The Seasonal Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Mechanisms and Robustness across Models | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | National Center for Atmospheric Research | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department | |
NNA: NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: The Integrated Characterization of Clouds, Energy, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit, Aerosol-Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2020 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | Greenland, Mid-West |
NNA: NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: The Integrated Characterization of Clouds, Energy, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit, Aerosol-Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2020 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
NNA: Remote Sensing of Arctic Sea Ice Using the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | Dartmouth College | Dartmouth College, Department | |
NNA: AON: EAGER: Closing the Water Vapor Exchange Budget Between the Ice Sheets and Free Atmosphere | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2020 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Atmospheric Hydrocarbons at GEOSummit, Greenland, as Tracers for Climate Change, Air Pollution Transport, and Oxidation Chemistry in the Arctic | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2019 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | Columbia University | Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | Desert Research Institute | Desert Research Institute, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Simulated Arctic Freshwater System in CMIP5 Models, the CESM Large Ensemble, and Forced Simulations | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Collaborative Research-HIARC: Anthropogenic Heat Islands in the Arctic. Windows to the Future of the Regional Climates, Ecosystems and Societies | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2019 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
The Impact of the Stratosphere on Arctic Climate | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2019 | Columbia University | Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory | |
Collaborative Research: Science coordination office for Summit Station/ISI Observatory and the Greenland Traverse | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2018 | Dartmouth College | Dartmouth College, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Science coordination office for Summit Station/ISI Observatory and the Greenland Traverse | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2018 | University of New Hampshire | University of New Hampshire, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Refining Long-term Climate Records from the Renland Ice Cap | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2017 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-East |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Proposal: The Role of Arctic Amplification in Modifying Mid-latitude Atmospheric Circulation and Promoting Extreme Weather Events | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Continuous Records of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosol Deposition During the Holocene: Testing the Fidelity of New Methods for Reconstructing Atmospheric Change | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | Oregon State University | Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Continuous Records of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosol Deposition During the Holocene: Testing the Fidelity of New Methods for Reconstructing Atmospheric Change | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | Desert Research Institute | Desert Research Institute, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences | Greenland, Mid-West |
Unraveling the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet from its internal radiostratigraphy | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | University of Washington | School of Oceanography | |
Collaborative Research: Arctic sea ice variability: Remote drivers and local processes | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | University of Washington | School of Oceanography | |
DMI service of weather stations east Greenland 2018 | 01.08.2018 | 31.08.2018 | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) | Arctic (entire region) | |
Snow data collection on Greenland scale | 25.02.2014 | 20.03.2014 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC) | Greenland, North-West |
UV-index service | 01.03.2012 | 28.02.2022 | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) | Research and Development | Arctic (entire region) |
GeoBasis-Zackenberg 2018 | 16.04.2018 | 01.11.2018 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Drivhusgas-observationer i Arktis (ObsArktis) | 31.07.2018 | 29.08.2018 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) | 01.07.2018 | 31.07.2018 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Evaluation of existing measurements in 2015 and 2016; new measurements of Short lived greenhouse forcers in 2017 and 2018 (EVAM-SLCF) and 2017-2019 | 01.08.2017 | 31.07.2019 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
METAPOL (Meteorological and pollutant observations in the High Arctic) | 10.08.2017 | 20.08.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
ObsArktis | 03.07.2017 | 21.08.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC) | Greenland, North-East |
Arctic monitoring Assessment program | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
MaxDOAS | 15.04.2017 | 29.04.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
Snow data collection on Greenland scale | 25.02.2014 | 20.03.2014 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC) | Greenland, North-West |
Microbial atmospheric-terrestrial coupling driven by long distance transport and deposition | 11.04.2015 | 03.05.2015 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Long-range transport of particle pollution to the Arctic and physical properties of Arctic aerosols | 29.04.2015 | 22.05.2015 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
The dynamics of mercury in the Arctic atmosphere | 25.02.2016 | 15.05.2016 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
The cloud forming potential of atmospheric particles | 01.04.2016 | 30.04.2016 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |